In free fall – Following 9 consecutive candles in the red on a weekly basis, Bitcoin finally closed in the green last week. It would seem that this lull was short-lived, as Bitcoin is expected to close in the red once again this Sunday. Altcoins are following and very intensely, as Ethereum is currently weak against Bitcoin. Inflation in the United States is not easing and it seems that the markets do not appreciate this. Can Bitcoin still save the day or is the cycle bearish again like in 2018? What are the whales doing during this new fall? Let’s see the important levels on the price of Bitcoin and the information that the indicators give us regarding the behavior of market participants.
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Bitcoin in two-week time unit
It is a unit of time intermediate, between the weekly and monthly unit. She allows to complete weekly course information.
The 100-period moving average, which has often served as dynamic support during the last bearmarkets, is not very far away. The moving average is around $22,000. If the buyers do not rally, it no longer seems unlikely that Bitcoin can join this moving average.
The RSI is in a oversold zone which corresponds to the lowest known during the other bermarkets. The price of Bitcoin can continue to fall regardless of the RSI indicator like many other indicators, but historically it was great shopping areas. The momentum remains very bearish at the moment, it will take time for buyers to reverse this trend.
Bitcoin weekly: support to defend or a possible return to $19,000
The situation is starting to be critical on a weekly basis, the price must react, and quickly:
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is in a tidy Between $29,000 and $59,000. If the support gives way, the next support solid is at $19,000. This would then be an additional reduction of 30 %. This decrease would be catastrophic for altcoins and would score a real very long-term dynamic change.
Bitcoin is bearish on a weekly basis and below the bearish trendline. The price has the ability to change momentum if the low to $26,700 is kept and that the buyers then manage to regain $32,400. If the low is pushed in, then the sellers could push up $19,000.
Momentum, which helps describe the strength of sellers against the strength of buyers, is clearly bearish and, this, since the beginning of 2021. Sellers control price and momentum.
Bitcoin must hold $26,700 daily
the tidy in daily was broken from the top while fetching $32,400but the sellers managed to drive the price down to come back in line. At the end of the week, Bitcoin broke out of the range from below and is now heading towards the wick left on May 12 at $26,700. If the low is defended by the buyers, the situation could be similar to last summer. On the other hand, if the sellers push and cause the price to close below $26,700the price will then experience a bearish continuation.
On the RSI, keep the lowest at 24 and get out of resistance zone near 50. This area makes resistance for several months now, a sign that sellers have the hand.
A break from the low to $26,700 would be really negative, it would show that the buyers are no longer defending the prices. If this is the scenario that comes true, then the price would probably go for a capitulation.
The recent drop interests the big wallets, the whales bought the recent drop
As we know, these players dominate the market, because they are investors with more 1,000 BTC in portfolio. Very often, the movements of strong falls frighten the small investors who sell at a loss in order to buy lower. The big wallets take advantage of this crowd movement to accumulate. It looks like whales are interested in prices currently.
Wallets with more than 10,000 BTC
We see it, the number of addresses with more than 10,000 BTC has increased during the recent fall. An increase that had not taken place since the beginning of 2019. These players distributed the tops known in May 2021 and November 2021. So it would seem that they are again interested in bitcoin.
Do not think that, because these entities buy, the price will start to rise again. These investors are patients and take advantage of falls to recover BTCs from small carriers. In fact, they have significant cash and they cannot buy one if there is no available offer. If the price continues to fall, the whales could continue to accumulate in view of a future rise in a few months or a few years.
Exchanges are once again experiencing a period of BTC withdrawals
Here is one of the most interesting graphs in the analysis on chain. We have just experienced a period when BTC were massively deposited on the exchanges (green), higher levels at the end of 2021, beginning of 2022.
The trend changesand the trend would have to confirmed. Overall, since the Covid crash in March 2020, BTCs are leaving exchanges massively. We can see it with the graph of the number of BTC available on the platforms:
Another metric is interesting: it is the percentage of bitcoin on exchanges. He is constantly down since early 2020. It is interesting to notice that the situation is different compared to 2018. If we entered a bear market, the available supply decreases over time, which was not the case in 2018.
Cryptocurrencies are in a critical situation, far from the good times known in 2021. The macroeconomic context is not improving and, for the moment, this is weighing down this young and promising market. Bitcoin is fragile, buyers need to react to avoid a move back to $19,000. The whales seem to have taken advantage of the decline to accumulate Bitcoin, but the price may continue to fall. Summer is coming and it is often a quiet period at the institutional level. This could allow Bitcoin to find a support zone like last summer. At the moment, the momentum is bearish and the sellers are in control. Can buyers reverse this trend in the coming weeks and months?
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